Were you shocked in 2016 when the world motorcycle market contracted by more than five million units? I suspect you weren’t: I certainly wasn’t. The reason is simple – that contraction took place in China, and how many of us were watching the internal Chinese market?
The decline was caused by government policies which penalized new registrations of two-wheelers. Before the legislative bomb hit, China was the world’s largest motorcycle market but it was left to India and other emerging markets like Pakistan and the Philippines to make up the gap in total sales numbers. By 2018 they had done that, and sales were back up to the 2014 level of 61.5 million units. In the process, India took over as the world’s largest motorcycle market.
Women are a strong potential market. Are there enough of them, with enough disposable income?
But in 2019, it was India’s turn to tank. The drop has not been as dramatic as China’s was, but the Indian motorcycle market lost 3.1 million sales. You might have thought that it was now China’s turn to take the ball and run with it, but although sales were up, it was by only 1.3 million units. It’s true that Europe was looking quite good at the same time, but when you’re talking in millions of sales it’s only markets like China, India and to a lesser extent Indonesia that can play.
Worldwide sales of motorcycles, tricycles, ATVs and scooters over 50cc fell to 60.1 million, losing 1.6 million over 2018.
Moto Morini has a new ADV bike. How many ATV bikes can find buyers in a shrinking market?
印度保留总18500000个销售其第一的位置。紧随其后的是中国16.3亿美元，印度尼西亚650万，越南3.2 millio9n和180万菲律宾。泰国随后与167万，数量大致相同巴基斯坦，然后它是巴西和墨西哥各终于，在第十位，台湾90万百万销量。
美国只能管理11thplace, Japan made 15thand France, the biggest European market, came in in 17thplace.
销售的化妆没有明显改变。过50cc的摩托车板块仍然是在2019年最大的25.8万辆的销量，同比减少70万。在摩托车领域，接着24.4万辆，同比下降120万，然后在470万来到三轮车（上涨0.15亿美元），轻便摩托车在4.6万美元，上涨0.2美元，最后股四头肌和亚视在559,000，略有上升。
Benelli is moving to larger capacity bikes. Presumably their Chinese factories can produce them.
Nearly 70% of the total market is taken up by 51 to 125cc models, followed by 125 to 250cc with 24.8%.
Taken all together, those figures are not too bad, considering that they are coming off the 2014 / 2018 record numbers. But 2020 looks like being a shocker. The effect of the coronavirus on global GDP, not to mention consumer liquidity and attitude, is likely to be catastrophic. It’s been estimated that in India alone, the impact of the virus will potentially cause a drop in sales of quite a few million. The likely reduction in consumer goods sales in countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia are likely to add – or rather subtract — significant numbers again. ASEAN sales, which had grown by 5% in 2019 with booming sales in countries like Singapore and Malaysia, are not going to be immune to this, and Latin America already lost nearly 7% in 2019. The total figure being talked about at the moment is in the order of 10 million, and that may well be too low.
Kawasaki’s shot at the electric bike segment.
And this time it’s not just going to be a drop in sales of little bikes in big countries that affect us hardly, if at all. This time it will certainly hit the developed world as well, and with that the sales of prestige motorcycles. The virus will almost certainly stop the recovery shown in some European markets, and it’s not going to help the USA either.
This time we will all notice the decline.
An electric Vespa looks like a totally reasonable move.
除非这个行业找到出路的螺旋式下跌行情正在开发。该航空公司正在通过降低价格和它打交道。能，或将，摩托车行业做？或者可以电动自行车填补一些差距？我们将在未来一年中看到。
（图：摩托车数据，照片：熊，2019米兰摩托车展EICMA）
