你有没有注意到,似乎有不少horses around? Here in the Land of Oz, we have mounted police, a brewery that delivers with a horse-drawn dray, a stationery wholesaler that uses a one-horse buggy for both publicity and delivery, a seemingly endless number of pony clubs and more, even without considering the many racehorse studs. Oh, and the favourite transport of the Amish people in the US. It looks to me as if nobody banned horses in the wake of the internal combustion engine’s introduction.

Nobody did, of course. In fact, horses stuck around in their old roles quite a while after the petrol and diesel engines became common. Much of the German army’s supply train on the World War II advance into Poland and then Russia consisted of horse-drawn wagons.

Internal combustion engines took over because they were more convenient∞it is no surprise that the first occupation that switched to cars from buggies was country doctors—as well as easier and soon cheaper to use. No compulsion was applied, or necessary. And horses stayed in used where they, in turn, were more convenient. Nobody has yet found a replacement for mounted police. Horses are simply more useful for relatively gentle crowd control than motorcycles, cars or (perish the thought) water cannon.

What I am trying to suggest here is, of course, that prohibition of internal combustion powered vehicles will not be necessary to encourage the changeover to alternative energy vehicles. Yes, at the moment there is quite a bit of pushing (with subsidies) and shoving (with areas restricted to polluting vehicles) going on by governments. And yes, they didn’t seem to think that was necessary during the changeover from horsepower to kilowatts. But that was because governments at the time had a much more limited view of their responsibilities. They were far less likely to worry about long-range health threats, for instance.

But I do not expect the outright prohibition of petrol and diesel vehicles. For one thing, that would be seriously unwelcome by the people who eventually run democratic countries—the voters. I think these vehicles will wither away until only the enthusiasts’ cars and motorcycles remain. These will, it is true, need to be powered by non-polluting fuels, but it is fairly clear that such will be available. Porsche is not the only company spending billions to come up with synthetic fuel to run current cars and bikes. It is true, of course, that fuel will be more expensive but if it is a luxury for enthusiasts rather than a necessity for workers, that should be acceptable. Eventually.

As for acceptance of electricity, hydrogen or whatever by the hoi polloi, that will be taken care of by cost reductions. I have no idea how these will come about, but come about they will because they must. We here at ADVrider.com have been criticised for “pushing” electric power. Well, we are a news site, among other things. And most of the news is from the electric front.That alone should tell you something.

The transport innovations that seem most likely to me include a transition to hydrogen power for heavy land transport, including trains and long-distance trucks; electricity (whether from renewable sources or from hydrogen produced by renewable sources) for shorter and last-mile delivery vans (I have seen it in Paris and it works); and electricity from wall outlets (however sourced) for cars and motorcycles.

Remember that this will not involve prying the ignition key out of your dead, cold hand. Fuel will continue to be available, it’s just that it will be more expensive as well as clean. And forget about the poor peasants who rely on the millions of small-capacity petrol-engine bikes they need to get their crops to market. The good folk of Shanghai and Beijing have switched to electric (I seen ‘em meself) and their compatriots around the world will have no trouble following their example.

Many people are unhappy that change is coming, and even refuse to believe that it is. I can understand that attitude; but this is a time of change whether we like it or not, not only for vehicle propulsion but for weather and other planetary changes. It is scary that a foot of sea level rise seems to already be locked in, no matter what we do. It is scary that this hot summer will probably be one of the coolest we will have for a while. Sticking your head in the sand won’t stop it, though. Not even ostriches, by no means the Einsteins of the animal world, believe that despite all those cartoons you’ve seen. But I can relate to the fear of people who prefer to believe that water will come from somewhere and pollution will go somewhere else. It’s just that it doesn’t seem likely.

Meanwhile, go easy when you’re passing a horse. They’re still not used to petrol power.